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Inflation is cooling but 2 risks remain, Morgan Stanley says
Key FactsMorgan Stanley identifies energy and AI inflation risks
Aug 14, 2026 · Reading time: ~45 sec.
Summary created with AI assistance · Source: businessinsider.com
  • Michael T. Gapen sees receding core inflation, so the Federal Reserve may initially wait after holding rates in July.

  • His forecast assumes supply shocks fully fade, without new shocks or substantial AI-related demand pressure.

  • After the latest US-Iran escalation, spot and futures prices rose meaningfully, renewing inflation concerns, Gapen said.

  • Gapen expects AI demand to keep electronics prices elevated in coming quarters, partly offsetting disinflation elsewhere.
  • Following the recent re-escalation between the US and Iran, both spot and futures prices have risen meaningfully, renewing concerns about inflation," he stated. "This has reversed the temporary decline in oil prices that followed the signing of the MOU between the two countries.— Michael T. Gapen, Morgan Stanley's chief US economist, in a client note
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